Is Uganda’s Census Data Keeping Us in the Low-Income Bracket?

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The World Bank released the income classifications of countries and placed Uganda in the low-income countries. The classification is based on the GNI per capita (Atlas Method). The lower middle income threshold is at $1176. Uganda is at $1120

Income classification serves a core economic function globally; that is to determine how countries can access finance (grants, loans, etc.), but also is used by countries for a broader political goal to indicate growth. The two need to be separated.

With a lower-middle-income classification, Uganda would have qualified for IBRD (concessional loans), which would have gone a long way in creating fiscal space for investment in sectors of growth.

An example of this is our neighbour Kenya who are lower middle income and have accessed almost $465 million that has been channelled to fiscal sustainability and projects in housing and roads. See distribution here; https://financesone.worldbank.org/countries/kenya

Should Uganda have been classified as a lower-middle-income country? The argument statistically lies in a key variable; population. The World Bank relied on data from the UN population division, who have yet to consider the 2024 national census that would place us at 47 million & not 51 million

The only African country that went up a classification, Togo, did so by having its national population readjusted to reflect the national census. See here https://ecofinagency.com/news/1602-52940-un-revises-togo-s-population-down-to-8-13-million-after-2022-census. So it thus falls to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics to explain to Ugandans the variance

I know there’s great incentive to doubt Ugandan institutions. Many public institutions globally suffer a trust deficit, but it’s important to have national data we can believe in. UN population data is still national data with projections.

As it stands, Uganda with a broad economic goal of decupling (tenfold growth) will have to do another financial year without the fiscal legroom to make dramatic public investments (is that a World Bank or a Uganda Bureau of Statistics problem?)

So the problems we face; housing, roads, debt could all have a solution if fiscal legroom expanded (and we have the capacity to pay back given growth in revenues before even oil revenue). If World Bank put our population at 47 million which it should be; our GNI per capita by Atlas method would be $1224.

Written by

Mujuni Raymond

Journalist, News Anchor, Columnist, Editor. Show Host. Investigative - at times. Awarded.

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