Musanjufu Benjamin Kavubu
President Trump’s personal actions in Venezuela have set the tone for geopolitics and geoeconomics in 2026, possibly the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro and his wife by the US military could be the foundation of international relations for the coming decade unless something drastic happens in Washington.
The most important thing is never to forget how Venezuela got to this point in modern history, the predicament Caracas find’s itself in, has its background in economic and governance bottlenecks through the last two decades. During the somewhat glorious days of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela found itself dependent on oil revenue after his leftist government nationalized the oil sector and expanded social welfare, things went downhill when Nicolás Maduro took over, overseeing a period of state mismanagement, widespread corruption that weakened state institutions. Then came the United States sanctions that did their intended purpose by reducing the countries oil production from 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to 1 million barrels per day by 2020.
Amidst the economic miscalculations by the government in Caracas was the foundation of political decay that impacted the democratic space negatively, there was a domino effect that eroded checks and balances leading to the 2024 elections, that the opposition claims to have won yet Mr Maduro never ceded power, adding another layer of political legitimacy that people like Marco Rubio and his Boss Trump have used to justify their barbarism, first along the Venezuelan coast, and eventually leading to the capture of a sitting president of a sovereign country.
The whole legitimacy question over the headship of a sovereign country, is something the entire global South should watch critically. With the barbaric precedent in place, countries in the global South have to make sure internal governance is up to the best of standards, through ensuring robust institutions that can manage resources especially the mineral deposits that range from oil to rare earth, and anything that attracts Great power competition especially in the AI age and New energies. The global South should seriously consider upgrading transparent and credible elections processes, backed by strong electoral institutions that allow for independent international observation, to avoid the whole debate of legitimacy of a sitting government when the days of external intervention aimed at natural resources come knocking.
Modern imperialism and colonialism 2.o is galvanized by sanctions, the global South in the current global order that is being shaped by Washington’s Mafia style diplomacy should never be allowed an avenue that leads to the Venezuela situation.
Partly, like most of the global South, Venezuela was a battle ground for great power rivalry between Washington and Beijing. China in the past put in place an intricate energy strategy, and Venezuela accounted to bout 3% of oil export to China, making it the largest consumer of the country’s energy supplies. When Washington sent its Navy to the Venezuela Coast to implement a blockade, they were trying to starve the Chinese energy supply chain, an action that was not well thought. China has multiple alternative energy supply chains world over.
At the moment, President Trump claims to be in charge of Venezuela, if that is the reality, then at some point China’s oil imports from the country are going to be affected. This is where the global South comes in through the South-South corporation, it’s such a model that a country like Uganda that is making its debut in oil production can utilize.
In 2026 Uganda is expected to emerge as an oil producer, for the last two decades, China has been tied to this process through upstream investments and infrastructure support, as part of its wider Africa energy strategy, it’s now up to Uganda to be ready to seize the opportunities that are falling into place. Global geography is already in our favor as a country if the East African Crude oil Pipeline is in place. For an oil tanker to leave the Venezuelan ports to reach a Chinese refinery, it has to travel through the Atlantic, pass through the Straight of Gibraltar, transit through Suez Canal, alternatively the Cape of Good hope and then the Indian Ocean, the Straight of Malaka and then the Chinese ports. On the other hand Uganda’s crude must transit through EACOP to the coast of Tanzania then the Indian Ocean through the Straight of Malaka to the South China sea and hit the Chinese ports. Venezuela oil can’t compete with Uganda when it comes to geopolitics at the moment.
Trump’s actions in Venezuela offered a diplomatic Master stroke to the global South. For the month of January 2026, the East African nation of Somalia assumed the presidency of the United Nations Security Council. With the global South in charge there was no waiting or political games, Somalia in no time convened a UN Security Council meeting that unilaterally condemned Washington’s military actions emphasizing sovereignty and non interference which was a strong counter to the US framing of events. This was a pivotal diplomatic engagement, that proved that the global South can positively influence global discourse on legitimacy, sovereignty and external pressure through leveraging multilateral platforms that are being undermined to facilitate international criminality.
The United States has the strongest military in the world, they have mastered the art of going into other countries but they have the worst track record of nation building, if Trump goes through with occupying Venezuela something that may need about 300,000 troops on the ground, it will be expensive and it will end like Iraq and Afghanistan, where Western capitalist lost money in the oil sector have since left it for China, a China that is also reducing it’s reliance on oil, and is well overhead to be at Carbon net zero by 2030 already. For now the Venezuela crisis provides lessons for the global South for example, internally they can put first impeccable governance to defuse any legitimacy questions that invite external interference and ensure resources benefit each nation.
The Venezuela crisis also gives countries like Uganda the opportunity to position themselves within China’s energy diversification strategy, as reliable and efficient suppliers, while taking advantage of multilateralism through avenues like AfCFTA, UN agencies, BRICS, FOCAC and BRI to reinforce the norms of sovereignty and mutual cooperation. The curse of Caracas can be a transformative lesson for places like Kampala going into the next decade.
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Written by
<a href="https://benjaminwatchblog.wordpress.com/">Benjamin WATCH blog</a>, Community Manager <a href="http://afrobloggers.org.zw/">Afrobloggers</a>, Social Media and Africa Lead Coordinator Africaniwa, Real Estate enthusiast, Team Manager <a href="https://kyambogorugby.com/">Kyambogo Rugby </a>
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